viernes, 7 de febrero de 2020

INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA. Divisas. 7 de febrero de 2020. Comentario de la mesa


Durante la operación nocturna el precio de la divisa norteamericana frente al Peso Mexicano, oscila en un rango desde 18.63 y hasta el 18.7470 aproximadamente hasta las 7 de la mañana alcanzando hasta una depreciación equivalente a 0.80% por encima del precio del cierre previo (18.57).
En general el comportamiento del peso corresponde a una fortaleza del dólar generalizada, las divisas de mercados emergentes caen desde -0.02% hasta - 0.75% al momento de escribir este comentario destacando el rublo ruso y el dólar australiano que son las que hasta el momento tienen la mayor depreciación.
Se publican datos de nómina no agrícola, tasa de desempleo e inventarios de negocios, la tasa de desempleo subió marginalmente desde 3.5% a 3.6%, la nómina no agrícola tiene un espectacular resultado 225 mil desde el previo de 145 mil y desde el estimado de 165 mil empleos y los inventarios se publican a las 9 de la mañana.
En México se publicaron ya los datos de inflación al consumidor, la anual tuvo un resultado de 3.24% desde el 3.28% estimado, veremos más adelante el dato de creación de empleos formales (anterior -382.2 mil empleos) A las 10 de la mañana estaremos pendientes al reporte semestral de política monetaria del FED lo que seguramente moverá a los mercados financieros.
Técnicamente tenemos un nivel de resistencia inmediata sobre 18.78 como primer nivel y como primer soporte fuerte se observa el 18.68 los que fungirán como rangos iniciales de la jornada.
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Stock Markets having a poor performance this Friday, Asia closed mixed, between -0.38% and +1.81%, while Europe is, by mid-day -0.49%, futures in Americas are expecting a negative opening as well. German industrial production dropped abruptly in December, -3.5%, rounding off a poor year for manufacturing in Europe ́s largest economy during 2019. Euro is trading around 1.0950, lowest level since October 8th, 2019. GBP is around 1.2930, lowest level since December 25th, 2019.
In the US, NFP where better than expected, as they increased by 225,000 jobs last month, however unemployment rate rises from 3.5% to 3.6%.
Coronavirus keeps killing people, death toll increased to 636 people, and has already infected 31,161 in mainland China. Li Wenliang, a Chines doctor who tried to issue the first warning about the deadly disease has died. He sent a warning message to fellow medics on December 30th, but police told him to stop making false comments.
Peso is still trapped on a narrow range, trying to figure out whether it wants to keep getting stronger or finally having a technical bounce to 19.00. range for the day could be seen between 18.68/18.78.
This Day in History!
A day like today in 1992, after suffering through centuries of bloody conflict, the nations of Western Europe finally unite in the spirit of economic cooperation with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty of European Union. The treaty, signed buy ministers of the European Community, called for greater economic integration, common foreign and security policies and cooperation between police and other authorities on crime, terrorism and immigration issues.
The agreement also laid the groundwork for the establishment of a single European currency, to be known as the Euro.
By the time the Maastricht Treaty took effect in 1993, it had been ratified by 12 nations: Great Britain, France, Germany, Irish Republic, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Denmark, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Since then, other 15 countries have also joined the union. The Euro was introduced into circulation on January 1, 1999.
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