miércoles, 5 de febrero de 2020

INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 5 de febrero de 2020 Comentario de la mesa


Hola muy buen día, de nueva cuenta el precio del dólar cae, las divisas de mercados emergentes recuperan una gran parte del terreno perdido en jornadas recientes, aunque la lira turca y el ringgit malayo son las dos que se mantienen en terreno negativo. El Peso alcanza niveles sobre 18.5870 aproximadamente, para registrar una apreciación de 0.40% al momento, siendo una de las divisas más ganadoras junto con el rublo ruso, el real brasileño y el rand sudafricano.
Como es de esperarse, las divisas duras se mantienen marginalmente en terreno negativo ante el apetito por el riesgo que se percibe al momento y creemos que así seguirán el resto de la jornada.
Se publicaron los datos de empleo, ADP fue extremadamente positivo con 291 mil empleos creados, un dato muy por encima del 157 mil estimado. En cuanto a la balanza comercial el dato estuvo marginalmente por debajo de las expectativas -48.9b vs -48.2b. Para el resto de la jornada esperamos datos de PMI ́s, tanto el compuesto como de servicios con estimados de 53.2 puntos además del dato de ISM no manufacturero a las 9 de la mañana. En México se publicaron los indicadores líderes con un 0.16 pts. mejor al previo de 0.10 pts. , las ventas de autos cayeron dramáticamente desde 130,448.
Entre los eventos importantes de hoy destaca la posible absolución del Senado a Trump en cuanto al juicio político se refiere y el discurso de Brainard a las 3 de la tarde.
Técnicamente, vemos rompimientos de niveles importantes con la intención de abrir paso a nuevos mínimos, el nivel objetivo está en 18.55, con el siguiente nivel en 18.48 y una menor probabilidad de ocurrencia. En la parte alta un regreso al 18.66 funge como resistencia importante del día.
Rangos iniciales 18.55/18.66.
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Stock Markets having a good day, Asia closed +1.32%, while Europe is by mid- day up +1.25%, futures in Americas are on the same track, expecting a positive opening. Coronavirus, the Chines disease identified in Wuhan, capital of the Chines Hubei province has now killed at least 492 people, and more than 25,000 people havebeen infected. This has spread panic throughout markets over the past couple of weeks, because of fears of a big impact on the Chinese economy that could spread and hurt the global growth just starting in 2020.
Scientists from all across the world are working hard to find a vaccine to beat coronavirus. A leading British scientist has made a significant breakthrough in the race, by reducing a part of the normal development time from between two to three years to just 14 days.
Yesterday President Trump delivered State of Union address to American nation. He took advantage of the large TV audience to make his case for a reelection. Senate will vote today at 16:00 ET on a verdict on the third Senate impeachment of a sitting President. A two thirds majority is required for conviction, and Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the chamber, and so far non Republicans have said they will vote to remove the President from the office. The Peso is trading around 18.60, its lowest level since October 2018, any close below 18.60 could take us to test 18.40 ́s which is the next objective. Fortoday 18.55 will stay as a good support. Euro is 1.10 and GBP is 1.30. This Day in History! A day like today in 1917, after seven years of revolution and civil upheaval, Mexican President Venustiano Carranza proclaims the modern Mexican Constitution, which promises the restoration of lands to native peoples, the separation of church and state, and dramatic economic and education reforms. The progressive political document, approved by an elected constitutional convention, combined revolutionary demands for land reform with advanced social theory. It would be decades, however, before most of the sweeping reforms promised by the constitution became reality. Carranza was deposed and killed in 1920, and lasting stability eluded Mexico until after World War II, when industrialism spurredby the war grew into a major part of the economy and Miguel Aleman became first in an unbroken series of civilian Presidents.
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