Hola muy buen día, de nueva cuenta el precio del dólar cae, las divisas de mercados emergentes recuperan una gran parte del terreno perdido en jornadas recientes, aunque la lira turca y el ringgit malayo son las dos que se mantienen en terreno negativo. El Peso alcanza niveles sobre 18.5870 aproximadamente, para registrar una apreciación de 0.40% al momento, siendo una de las divisas más ganadoras junto con el rublo ruso, el real brasileño y el rand sudafricano.
Como es de
esperarse, las divisas duras se mantienen marginalmente en terreno
negativo ante el apetito por el riesgo que se percibe al momento y
creemos que así seguirán el resto de la jornada.
Se publicaron los
datos de empleo, ADP fue extremadamente positivo con 291 mil empleos
creados, un dato muy por encima del 157 mil estimado. En cuanto a la
balanza comercial el dato estuvo marginalmente por debajo de las
expectativas -48.9b vs -48.2b. Para el resto de la jornada esperamos
datos de PMI ́s, tanto el compuesto como de servicios con estimados
de 53.2 puntos además del dato de ISM no manufacturero a las 9 de la
mañana. En México se publicaron los indicadores líderes con un
0.16 pts. mejor al previo de 0.10 pts. , las ventas de autos cayeron
dramáticamente desde 130,448.
Entre los eventos
importantes de hoy destaca la posible absolución del Senado a Trump
en cuanto al juicio político se refiere y el discurso de Brainard a
las 3 de la tarde.
Técnicamente, vemos
rompimientos de niveles importantes con la intención de abrir paso a
nuevos mínimos, el nivel objetivo está en 18.55, con el siguiente
nivel en 18.48 y una menor probabilidad de ocurrencia. En la parte
alta un regreso al 18.66 funge como resistencia importante del día.
Rangos iniciales
18.55/18.66.
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Stock Markets having
a good day, Asia closed +1.32%, while Europe is by mid- day up
+1.25%, futures in Americas are on the same track, expecting a
positive opening. Coronavirus, the Chines disease identified in
Wuhan, capital of the Chines Hubei province has now killed at least
492 people, and more than 25,000 people havebeen infected. This has
spread panic throughout markets over the past couple of weeks,
because of fears of a big impact on the Chinese economy that could
spread and hurt the global growth just starting in 2020.
Scientists from all
across the world are working hard to find a vaccine to beat
coronavirus. A leading British scientist has made a significant
breakthrough in the race, by reducing a part of the normal
development time from between two to three years to just 14 days.
Yesterday President
Trump delivered State of Union address to American nation. He took
advantage of the large TV audience to make his case for a reelection.
Senate will vote today at 16:00 ET on a verdict on the third Senate
impeachment of a sitting President. A two thirds majority is required
for conviction, and Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the chamber,
and so far non Republicans have said they will vote to remove the
President from the office. The Peso is trading around 18.60, its
lowest level since October 2018, any close below 18.60 could take us
to test 18.40 ́s which is the next objective. Fortoday 18.55 will
stay as a good support. Euro is 1.10 and GBP is 1.30. This Day in
History! A day like today in 1917, after seven years of revolution
and civil upheaval, Mexican President Venustiano Carranza proclaims
the modern Mexican Constitution, which promises the restoration of
lands to native peoples, the separation of church and state, and
dramatic economic and education reforms. The progressive political
document, approved by an elected constitutional convention, combined
revolutionary demands for land reform with advanced social theory. It
would be decades, however, before most of the sweeping reforms
promised by the constitution became reality. Carranza was deposed and
killed in 1920, and lasting stability eluded Mexico until after World
War II, when industrialism spurredby the war grew into a major part
of the economy and Miguel Aleman became first in an unbroken series
of civilian Presidents.
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