INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 2 de abril de 2020 Comentario de la mesa

Tipo de Cambio Peso/Dólar

Dólar americano

23.8814

Fix Banxico* 24.4918

Promedio móvil 50 días 20.5713

Promedio móvil 200 días 19.6018

Máximo 30 días 25.4583

Mínimo 30 días 18.7994

Datos actualizados a las: 8:37 AM

* Correspondiente al día hábil inmediato anterior a la fecha de esta publicación.

Fuente: Banxico y Bloomberg.

Hola muy buen día, ayer el mercado vuelve a tener una apreciación importante desde el máximo del día hasta el cierre (24.61 a 24.22 aproximadamente), esto debido principalmente al inicio de las subastas de Crédito en dólares de Banco de México y sucede a pesar de la caída en las Bolsas de Valores de manera generalizada. El Dow perdió cerca de 4%, la bolsa mexicana alrededor de 2% aunque para ser sinceros la demanda del crédito en dólares fue solamente de 1.2 veces el monto, lo que algunos consideran que fue baja.

Hoy el panorama no parece más alentador, las Bolsas continúan con expectativas negativas, a pesar de que el Dow Jones abre “flat” sobre +0.04% al momento de escribir este comentario y que el precio del crudo se ha elevado alrededor de 8.3% a 22 dólares el barril; el “riesgo país” de México sube 4.66% hasta 294.79 puntos, muy cerca del nivel máximo observado en los últimos 12 años y el precio vuelve a niveles de 24.40 ́s.

Se publicaron los datos de ayuda por desempleo con un histórico nivel de 6.7 millones de solicitudes, un dato por demás preocupante; en la crisis hipotecaria de 2008-2009 el nivel máximo alcanzado por fueron 665 mil solicitudes y más atrás en 1982 se registraron 671 mil solicitudes lo que nos hace poner en perspectiva el impacto de esta pandemia.

Técnicamente, vemos niveles inmediatos sobre 24.15 como soporte inmediato con extensión a 23.85 mientras que en la parte alta el nivel de resistencia inmediata se observa sobre 24.45 extensión a 24.60 Rangos iniciales 24.15/24.45.

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Good morning,

US weekly jobless claims increased last week to a record high level in history, hitting 6.6 million, which brings the two-week total to around 10 million Americans filling up for unemployment insurance. Tomorrow we ́ll have Nonfarm Payrolls, analysts are expecting a number, that could go from -600K to a gain of 100K, an immensely wide range that underlines the degree of uncertainty facing the world ́s most important economy.

This could only show how coronavirus is affecting the global economy, and I think this is just the beginning, this looks like we are heading into the worst financial crisis that we have ever seen.

China has decided to start buying millions of barrels of discounted oil for state reserve, the initial target is the equivalent of 90 days of net imports, which is about 900 million barrels, but this could eventually be expanded to as much as 180 days. Oil prices increased by 2 dollars to $22 USD per barrel. Asian stock markets closed mixed, between -2.02% and +1.62%, European markets are negative by mid-day, -1.69% and American shares are mixed, - 0.28% and +0.77% as they just opened.

The Euro is trading around 1.0870, the British Pound is 1.24 and the Peso is 24.10

Coronavirus is near a million confirmed cases, 956,588 with a death toll of 48,583. The US has 216,722 cases, followed by Italy, 110,574 and Spain 110,238. In Mexico confirmed cases reached 1,378 with 37 deaths.

This Day in History!

A day like today in 1982, Argentina invades the Falklands Islands, a British colony since 1892 and British possession since 1833. Argentine amphibious forces rapidly overcame the small garrison of British marines at the town of Stanley on East Falkland and the next day seized the dependent territories of South Georgia and the South Sandwich group. The 1,800 Falkland Islanders, mostly E nglish-speaking sheep farmers, awaited a British response.

Britain was outraged, and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher assembled a naval task force of 30 warships to retake the islands. As Britain is 8,000 miles from the Falklands, it took several weeks for the British warships to arrive. On April 25, South Georgia Island was retaken, and after several intensive naval battles fought around the Falklands, British troops landed on East Falkland on May 21. After several weeks of fighting, the large Argentine garrison at Stanley surrender on June 14, effectively ending the conflict..

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