ITERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 13 de febrero de 2020 Comentario de la mesa

Hola buen día;

Durante la operación nocturna el precio oscila entre 18.6150 y 18.6830 aproximadamente, el euro se ubica al momento sobre 1.0855 dólares por euro y durante la operación nocturna el precio oscila en un rango de 20.2235 y 20.2237. En general las divisas se encuentran con leves retrocesos contra la divisa

norteamericana exceptuando la libra esterlina que al momento de escribir este comentario recupera 0.56% para ubicarse sobre 1.3032 dólares por libra.

Hoy se publicaron ya los datos de inflación al consumidor en EEUU con resultados en línea con las estimaciones. Se publicaron también los datos de solicitudes de ayuda por desempleo con 205k solicitudes frente a las 210 mil estimadas. Lo más relevante de la jornada sin duda será la decisión de Política Monetaria de Banxico, ésta se publica a las 13 horas hora lo cal y lo que estima el mercado es una reducción de 25 puntos base de 7.25% a 7.0%. Técnicamente vemos niveles importantes sobre 18.58 como soporte inicial con un retroceso marcado hasta el 18.74 aunque de manera intermedia tenemos un 18.68 como resistencia inmediata.

Rangos iniciales 18.58/18.68.

Good morning,

Stock markets mixed on this Thursday, Asia closed -0.62% +0.65% and Europe is negative by mid-day, -1.56%. Futures in Americas are expecting a mixed opening as well. Coronavirus infected cases jumped from 44,653 to 60,407 in just one day, this is the worst day since we started with this new virus, the death toll increased from 1,113 to 1,369. Only two of the confirmed fatalities have been outside of mainland China.

In the US, annual core CPI came in at 2.3% in January, higher than the market expectations of 2.2% but just as last month ́s reading. Euro is trading at 1.0850, lowest level since May 11, 2017, this after the European Commission kept its economic forecast for moderate Euro Zone growth for this year and 2021, and also said that they expect a 1.2% GDP growth over this year.

GBP has recovered, and is trading around 1.3025, a close over 1.30 could take Pound to test 1.32 again. Peso is trading around 18.65, a few hours before Banxico ́s decision, where we are expecting a rate cut of 0.25 BP. Range for the day could be expected between 18.58/18.68.

This Day in History!

A day like today in 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson decides to undertake the sustained bombing of North Vietnam that he and his advisers have been contemplating for a year. Called Operation Rolling Thunder, the bombing campaign was designated to interdict North Vietnamese transportation routes in the southern part of North Vietnam and slow infiltration of personnel and supplies into South Vietnam. From 1965 to 1968, about 643,000 tons of bombs were dropped on North Vietnam, and a total of nearly 900 US aircraft were lost during Operation Rolling Thunder.

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