INTERCAM BANCO. OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 1 de octubre de 2021 Comentario de la mesa

Evergrande sigue sin realizar los pagos de los vencimientos de corto plazo aunque
aún falta tiempo (30 días) para declararlo en “default”. Mientras tanto, China en
feriado largo de 7 días por “Día Nacional”. Pre-acuerdo entre Demócratas y
Republicanos evita el “Shut-Down” del Gobierno norteamericano hasta el mes de
diciembre. Alza de 25 puntos base por parte de Banxico para ubicar el nivel de
tasa en 4.75%. El DXY se empieza a relajar y se ubica en 94 puntos, la volatilidad
se redujo -2.0%, el bono norteamericano de largo plazo cae también a 1.4850% y,
en un solo día, parece que nos quedamos sin “drivers” que le den movimiento a
nuestro mercado.
Ya se publicaron datos de ingreso y gasto personal. Esperamos datos de PMI e
ISM, además del Sentimiento de Confianza de la Universidad de Michigan. En
México, Remesas totales y PMI ́s. Harker y Mester (miembros del Fed) hablan a
las 10:00 y 12:00 horas, respectivamente.
Técnicamente, de mediano plazo, se ven niveles entre 20.25 y 20.75. Para el corto
plazo e intraday, vemos un 20.45 soporte relevante y 20.65 como resistencia.
Rangos iniciales intraday: 20.45/20.60.
--------------------------
Good morning,
High inflation risk seems to last longer than expected even after global growth has
peaked. This sentiment is still hurting markets. Energy prices keep rising and the
gas supply crunch worsens as colder months are closer.
Eurozone inflation hits a 13 year high of 3.4% in September.
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed negative this Friday, with the Japanese Nikkei
falling -2.31% followed by the Australian S&P which declined -2.0%. Markets in
Hong Kong were closed for a holiday while those in China will be closed until
October 7th.
European markets are negative by mid-day, losing as much as -0.72%. Global
markets have been agitated by fears of high inflation, and rising rates.
Retail sales in Germany rebounded in August but not as it was expected 1.1% vs
1.5%.
Markit Manufacturing PMI’s declined to 58.6 from 58.7 in the Eurozone last month,
while in the UK it rose to 57.1 from 56.3.
Eurozone finance ministers will meet on Monday to discuss the economic fallout
from soaring energy prices.
Wall Street is expecting a positive opening in the US, with Dow up 116 points and
Nasdaq 30 points up.
Markit Manufacturing PMI’s, ISM Manufacturing, Michigan Consumer Sentiment,
and construction spending are due later on the day, so investors will be looking for
this data.
Oil is $74.54 USD per barrel, Gold is $1,757.40 USD per ounce, the British Pound
has rebounded to 1.3560, the Euro is 1.16 and the Peso is 20.50.
Interesting Facts About Money!
Did you know that Queen Elizabeth II holds the record for appearing on more
currency than any other person?
From Australia to Trinidad and Tobago, Queen Elizabeth II’s portrait has graced
the currencies of 33 different countries, more than any other individual. Canada
was the first to use the British monarch’s image, in 1935, when it printed the 9-
year-old Princess on its $20 notes.