miércoles, 25 de marzo de 2020

INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 25 de marzo de 2020 Comentario de la mesa


Tipo de Cambio Peso/Dólar
Dólar americano 24.4333
Fix Banxico* 25.1185
Promedio móvil 50 días 19.9909
Promedio móvil 200 días 19.4693
Máximo 30 días 25.4583
Mínimo 30 días 18.5237
Datos actualizados a las: 8:18 AM
* Correspondiente al día hábil inmediato anterior a la fecha de esta publicación.
Fuente: Banxico y Bloomberg.
Hola muy buen día, empezamos con un precio sobre 24.58 con niveles durante el “overnight” entre 24.2350 y 24.91, aproximadamente. Ayer por la tarde los miembros del senado norteamericano discutían el paquete de estímulos que pretenden ofrecer a la población y en la noche acordaron un paquete de $2 billones de dólares para proveer de liquidez a la población, negocios, hospitales, gobiernos locales, entre otros. El paquete se vota hoy en el Congreso.
El paquete incluye $500miles de millones de dólares para préstamos y asistencia a compañías incluyendo a aerolíneas, $350mmdd para pequeños negocios, $150mmdd para hospitales, $250mmdd en pagos directo a adultos mayores y niños.
Se publican datos de bienes duraderos e índices hipotecarios en EEUU, en México se publicaron los datos de ventas minoristas con resultados en línea, se cancelaron las conferencias de Bullard y Kaplan, y seguiremos de cerca el tamaño de los estímulos a las economías del mundo principalmente a la de la Unión Americana.
Técnicamente, vemos niveles importantes en 24.30 como gran soporte para hoy, con un nivel intermedio marcado en 24.35, mientras que en la parte alta el 24.50 es el primer nivel de resistencia con extensión a 24.65 nivel fuerte de resistencia. En el mediano plazo tenemos un soporte en 23.65. Rangos iniciales 24.30/24.65.
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Asian markets are having a good day, stock markets over there closed positive, +8.04%, Europeans by mid-day are mixed, between -1.56% and +0.76%. In the US, after 5 days of marathonic negotiations, the White House and Senate leaders reached a historic $2 trillion stimulus deal to relief coronavirus pandemic and keep the nation from falling into a deep recession. Providing tax rebates, $250 billion will go for direct payments to individuals and families, $350 billion to small business loans, $250 billion in unemployment insurance benefits and $500 billion in loans for distressed companies, amongst others. This is the largest rescue package in the US history. Congress is under intense pressure to quickly pass the deal and then be signed by President Trump.
While the US package is essential to the markets, we can ́t forget that the European Central Bank announced a €750 billion euro in asset purchases, Bank of England $430 billion Pounds and the Bank of Japan $112 billion.
In Germany, business morale slumps to its lowest since the global financial crisis in 2009 as the IFO Institute Business climate fall to 86.1 from 96.0 in February.
The German economy is in shock and could contract by as much as 20% this year due to the impact of coronavirus. The Euro is trading around 1.08. In the UK, Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has coronavirus. He and his wife, Camila, are isolating themselves in Scotland. The British Pound is around 1.1750.
The Peso is trading around 24.50, almost a peso down from its highest level yesterday, 25.44. Pushed by the positive mood of US stimulus package.
Coronavirus has reached 438,749 confirmed cases around the world, with 19,675 deaths. China 81,661, Italy 69,176, US 55,243, Spain 47,610, Mexico 405. Oil is falling again, trading around $23.10 USD a barrel.
This Day in History!
A day like today in 1957, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg sign a treaty in Rome establishing the European Economic Community (EEC), also known as the Common Market. The EEC, which came into operation in January 1958, was a major step in Europe ́s movement toward economic and political union.
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