INTERCAM BANCO: OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 4 de marzo de 2020 Comentario de la mesa

Hola muy buen día, empezamos la jornada con un precio marcado sobre 19.26, con movimientos entre 19.1865 y 19.46 aproximadamente desde la apertura del mercado a las 4 pm de ayer hasta hoy a las 7 de la mañana. Esto después de que sorpresivamente y de manera extraordinaria (fuera de calendario) el Banco de la Reserva Federal redujera la tasa de referencia en 50 puntos base con la finalidad de darle liquidez a los mercados financieros y así enfrenten las consecuencias del COVID-19.

Hoy se tuvieron los resultados de hipotecas y empleo, en ambos casos el resultado fue mejor a los estimados por el mercado y, para las 8:45, se espera el dato del PMI (índice de Compras) así como a las 9 de la mañana el ISM no manufacturero. En México se publicaron los datos de ventas de autos con resultados dentro de las expectativas. Lo más relevante de la jornada en cuanto a información económica es la publicación del “Beige Book” en donde cada distrito informa las condiciones económicas locales.

Técnicamente, vemos niveles importantes sobre 19.18 y 19.25 con resistencia inmediata sobre 19.35 y 19.43 para el corto plazo. Rangos iniciales 19.25/19.35.

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Yesterday we were saying that G7 statement disappointed markets, as investors were looking for more dramatic actions from the world ́s top policymakers. Well, as we were just adding sugar to our coffee, the FED decided to cut rates by 50 bp. Markets were upside down with the news, absolutely no one was expecting the FED to do this, and even less with a FED ́s meeting in a few weeks. But it’s done. Markets reacted, as it was expected, the Peso strengthened from 19.55 to 19.30 in a few minutes, and touched 19.15 50 minutes later, the British Pound went from 1.2780 to 1.2830, while the Euro went from 1.1120 to 1.1210. Suddenly, and after the “famous” conference call between G7 finance ministers were they didn ́t act, rumors that BoE, ECB and BoC are going to cut rates overwhelmed markets. After this turmoil, markets are steady today, Stock markets in Asia closed mixed, between -1.71% and +0.58%, Europeans are up +1.53% and futures in Americas are expecting a positive opening. Peso is trading around 19.33, Euro is 1.1110 and British Pound is around 1.2815.

Regarding “Super Tuesday,” Joe Biden was the big winner, with a preliminary advantage on 9 of 14 estates. In China, the Chinese Caxin/Markit services purchasing managers index (PMI) plunged to 26.5 in February from 51.8 in January, any data below 50 shows contraction, and this is the worst month on record, as efforts to contain coronavirus are hurting the world ́s second biggest economy in the world. This Day in History! A day like today in 1861, Abraham Lincoln became the 126th president of the United States. In his inauguration speech, Lincoln extended an olive branch to the south, but also made it clear that he intended to enforce federal law in the states that seceded.

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